Brazil has seen dramatic market shifts just four days after its sweeping betting ban took effect, with offshore operators rapidly absorbing demand abandoned by licensed platforms.
Brazil ranks as the number one iGaming market by user demand across all 142 countries that Blask currently tracks, making the impact of any regulatory shift enormous.
Since the regulated market officially launched in January 2025, onshore brands had consistently commanded more than 96% of total user interest measured by the Blask Index.
Between the market launch on 1 January 2025 and 24 September 2026, offshore brands averaged just 3.9% of Brazil’s iGaming demand, with their share sitting at 3.4% the day before the ban.
Following publication of the ban, the offshore share climbed every single day and reached 9.9% by 29 September, the highest daily figure since regulated betting launched.
Ricardo Bianco Rosada, Founder of brmkt.co, offered a pointed assessment of the situation, arguing the ban simply redirects existing demand rather than eliminating it.
“The ban does not create that market. It hands it the other 30 million customers, the ones who until now were betting on sites that could see them.”
The ban extends beyond operators and directly covers intermediation and advertising, effectively dismantling Brazil’s regulated betting affiliate sector alongside the licensed operators it promoted.
The 20 most promoted brands held a combined affiliate coverage of 418 sites as of 29 September, sharply down from 715 sites recorded just one week earlier, representing a 41.5% decline.
Bet365, which ranked as the most promoted brand in August, suffered the steepest individual loss, dropping from 60 to 31 affiliate sites in a single week.
Brazino777, Novibet and Sportingbet also recorded significant losses in affiliate coverage as the regulatory pressure reshaped the promotional landscape almost overnight.
Stake emerged as the most promoted brand following the ban, though its own coverage still declined from 51 to 38 affiliate sites during the same period.
Betano, the country leader by overall user demand, was present on 33 sites by 29 September, a reduction of 15 sites compared to the previous week.
Luiz Felippe Correia de Almeida, CEO of Smart Social, confirmed the ban targets affiliate links, sponsored posts and betting bonus codes regardless of payment model used.
“Affiliates that depend only on Brazil are under the most pressure,” said Luiz Felippe Correia de Almeida, reinforcing the severity of the situation for single-market operators.
He noted that diversifying into other GEOs represents the most logical response, since continuing to target Brazilian audiences through alternative channels risks fines of up to 10% of group turnover.
The data paints a clear picture of a market in rapid transition, with offshore brands filling the void left by an affiliate ecosystem that contracted by more than 40% in one week.
