Brazil’s presidential race is heading to a runoff after Senator Flávio Bolsonaro outperformed pre-election surveys in a dramatic first-round result on Sunday.
Neither Bolsonaro nor incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva crossed the 50% threshold required to win outright, forcing a second vote scheduled for October 25.
Bolsonaro secured 47% of the first-round vote compared to Lula’s 45%, a margin that surprised pollsters who had forecast Lula leading by around three percentage points.
The stronger-than-expected showing is expected to energise Bolsonaro’s campaign and may positively affect Brazil’s currency and stock market, which have already risen on the prospects of the business-friendly challenger.
Bolsonaro is the son of former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election.
Speaking to reporters in Brasilia after nearly all tallies were reported, Bolsonaro declared his result heralded “the end of the era of (Lula’s) Workers’ Party.”
“Brazil wants change, and I am very happy with the results,” Bolsonaro told reporters, setting a confident tone heading into the second-round campaign.
The election centred on cost of living pressures, corruption and rising insecurity, themes that have driven a broader wave of right-wing electoral wins across Latin America among parties aligned with US President Donald Trump.
Despite falling inequality and unemployment under his tenure, Lula has struggled to persuade voters dealing with high household debt, elevated living costs and growing concerns about gang activity and crime.
Robert Muggah, cofounder of think tank Igarapé Institute, said the polling industry failed to capture Bolsonaro’s true level of support, warning that runoff surveys may similarly understate his position.
“The pollsters missed badly,” Muggah said. “Expect the runoff polls, which show a dead heat, to understate Bolsonaro as well.”
Earlier on Sunday, Bolsonaro told journalists in Rio de Janeiro he was counting on “a protest vote from people who would otherwise vote for another candidate but are opposed to Lula.”
São Paulo lawyer Thaise Lima reflected the ambivalence felt by some voters, saying “I don’t think Flavio is the best candidate, but I might decide to vote for him in the next few minutes.”
Brasilia voter Pedro Palacio expressed firm support for the incumbent, saying “We are confident in our President Lula, who will fight for national sovereignty.”
The outcome of the October 25 runoff carries significant implications for Brazil’s regulated betting market, which operators and investors are watching closely given the two candidates’ differing economic and regulatory philosophies.
