Swivel Gaming CEO Michael Pedersen believes the combined revenue of four emerging gambling verticals has already overtaken the US iCasino market in 2026.
Speaking on the NEXT.io Podcast, Pedersen put US iCasino on track to generate between $12bn and $13bn in annual gross gaming revenue for the full year.
By contrast, he estimates that sweepstakes, prediction markets, card rips, and advanced-deposit wagering together are generating the equivalent of between $15bn and $20bn in 2026.
Pedersen was clear that these sectors should no longer be dismissed, stating that they are “no longer a small niche in the corner” of the broader gambling industry.
Many industry observers had written off sweepstakes heading into 2026, particularly after California stepped away from that market, but the numbers suggest the sector has proven its doubters wrong.
According to projections from Eilers and Krejcik, sweepstakes alone could reach approximately $6.5bn in net purchases this year, making it the largest single contributor among the four verticals Pedersen tracks.
Pedersen highlighted a significant shift in forecasting from that same research firm, noting: “If you look at the latest numbers from Eilers and Krejcik from June, they originally had forecasted a decline of 26%. But as of June, they have actually reversed that trend and re-forecast it. So now looking at around about a 10% growth in net purchases year over year.”
That reversal in sentiment speaks to the broader momentum Pedersen sees across all four sectors, with newer entrants like card rips showing particularly notable acceleration despite limited formal data.
Pedersen has heard estimates of between $1bn and $3bn for the forecast annualised net purchases in card rips, though he acknowledges the data in this area remains more anecdotal given how recently the vertical has emerged.
Advanced-deposit wagering is likely contributing the smallest share to his overall figures, but Pedersen remains confident in its direction, saying: “I definitely think it [ADW] is growing.”
The Swivel CEO is not simply watching these trends from the sidelines, as the company is preparing to launch an Asia-facing sweepstake operator called Nanowin within the coming weeks.
That launch appears to signal a broader internationalisation strategy for Swivel, extending its platform beyond the US market where these verticals have so far been most prominent.
Comparing these four verticals directly to iCasino is inherently complex, since Pedersen uses net purchases as a GGR equivalent rather than providing a direct sector-by-sector financial breakdown.
Still, the overall trajectory Pedersen describes points to a rapidly shifting competitive landscape, one where regulated iGaming may no longer be the dominant force in American online gambling by year end.
