The American Gaming Association has forecast $29.5bn will be wagered legally on the 2026 NFL season, a figure virtually unchanged from the previous year’s $29.4bn.
The AGA said the stalled growth is a direct consequence of the rapid rise of prediction markets, which are increasingly diverting activity away from regulated sportsbooks.
The forecast covers preseason games, futures booked as early as March, the playoffs, and Super Bowl LXI scheduled for March 2027.
The trade body noted the flat handle is particularly striking given that legal sports betting has continued to expand across the United States in recent years.
According to the AGA, more than $1.3bn in potential state gaming tax revenue has been diverted to prediction markets since 2025, representing a significant financial blow to regulated operators.
The AGA also raised concerns about prediction markets competing directly with licensed sportsbooks, with the issue described as especially pronounced among younger consumers.
The trade body estimated that around $5.1bn of Kalshi’s trading volume has originated from users aged between 18 and 20, a demographic that generally cannot legally place bets through regulated US sportsbooks.
New research from Optimove reinforced the AGA’s concerns, with a survey of 926 US NFL bettors finding that 84% were already aware of prediction markets.
The same Optimove survey found that 60% of those NFL bettors planned to trade, buy, or sell event contracts at some point during the 2026 season.
The AGA’s warning arrived ahead of the NFL’s 2026 season opener, with the Seattle Seahawks set to host the New England Patriots on 9 September.
AGA president and CEO Bill Miller described prediction markets as “backdoor sports betting,” warning it is becoming increasingly difficult for consumers to distinguish legal products from unregulated ones.
Miller stated: “We’re excited for the NFL season to kick-off, as are millions of fans eager to engage with their favourite teams. Since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018, legalised sports betting had seen tremendous growth. But this year is different. Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called ‘prediction markets,’ the growth of legal handle has stalled.”
Miller’s comments underline growing industry pressure on regulators to address what the AGA considers an uneven playing field between licensed sportsbooks and prediction market platforms.
