The market has responded with clear enthusiasm to the proposed merger between Italy’s Lottomatica Group and Spain-based CIRSA Enterprises since it was first revealed.
On 2 September, Lottomatica formally informed the Borsa Milan of its intention to combine with CIRSA through an all-share transaction that analysts have widely welcomed.
Analysts have placed CIRSA’s implied value somewhere between €2.8bn and €3bn, reflecting the significant scale of what is being described as a landmark European gaming consolidation.
The combined entity is expected to become “global gambling’s second-largest listed betting and gaming operator” behind Flutter Entertainment, positioning it as a major force in the global market.
Together, the two operators are forecast to generate income of more than €4.4bn and pro-forma adjusted EBITDA of around €2bn for the twelve months ending 30 June 2026.
The deal, expected to become effective in Q2 2027, caused an initial share price dip for Lottomatica, with stock falling from €24.77 to €22.88, a drop of 7.6%, on the day of the announcement.
Ben Shelley of UBS moved quickly to reassure markets, reiterating his “Buy” position on Lottomatica with a target price of €33 and an upside of over 36% at the time of his 3 September analysis.
James Wheatcroft of Jefferies and Ed Young of Morgan Stanley both followed suit, reiterating their own “Buy” positions with respective target prices of €35.50 and €30.50 on 7 September and 23 September.
Lottomatica shares have recovered strongly since the initial dip, now trading at €26.95, representing a rise of 6.9% over the last month and 21% across 2026 so far.
The recovery represents a near 18% rebound since the notable low point that followed the original merger announcement, signalling that investor confidence has firmly returned.
CIRSA shareholders have enjoyed even more dramatic gains, with the company’s stock surging 37.7% in the last month and 41.35% since the merger was announced, trading at €19.28 at the time of writing.
Earlier analyst target prices for CIRSA from Young and Wheatcroft stood at €18.40 and €20, with the lower of those two figures already surpassed by the current share price movement.
Both of those CIRSA price targets were set before the merger announcement, suggesting that analyst valuations may need to be revised upward in the coming weeks.
Leadership at both operators will be expected to deliver on the promise of the deal, with Lottomatica Chief Executive Officer Guglielmo Angelozzi emphasising the need for “stable and predictable growth” going forward.
The broader market reaction suggests investors are broadly confident that the combined group has the operational foundations and strategic ambition to compete at the very highest level of global gaming.
