Gibraltar has made global regulatory history by launching the world’s first standalone framework designed exclusively for the prediction markets sector.
The new rules, known as the Prediction Market Regulations 2026, came into force on July 13, 2026, carving out prediction market operators from elements of the Gambling Act 2025.
Rather than folding predictions activity into its existing gambling framework, Gibraltar has chosen to treat the sector as its own distinct category requiring dedicated oversight.
A standalone supervisory authority will oversee the framework, fulfilling a role comparable to that of the Gambling Commissioner who oversees Gibraltar’s regulated gambling market.
Gibraltar has already licensed two prediction platforms under its framework, ADI Predictstreet and Wire Markets, with the latter having been approved in principle by authorities.
ADI Predictstreet holds a betting intermediary licence and is built on the ADI Chain blockchain, which is operated by UAE technology firm ADI Foundation.
Nigel Feetham KC MP, Gibraltar’s Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, said: “Gibraltar’s approach is to regulate innovation responsibly by providing a clear regulatory framework for operators that wish to conduct prediction market activities under this regime, where it is the appropriate regulatory framework.”
Feetham added: “The focus is not on labels, but on ensuring that the chosen framework is capable of effective supervision and robust standards of market integrity, transparency, participant protection and financial crime prevention.”
The inclusion of cryptocurrency provisions within the framework is considered significant, given crypto’s substantial role in how prediction platforms operate globally.
Market integrity remains a pressing concern for the sector, with platforms including Polymarket having faced scrutiny over insider trading worries related to political and military conflict markets.
Prediction markets are a deeply contested topic internationally, with regulators in France, Belgium, Singapore, Portugal, Argentina, and Italy among those treating the platforms as illegal gambling operations.
The United States remains the heartland of the modern online predictions industry, home to Kalshi and Polymarket, which carry respective valuations of $22bn and $15bn.
The federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission views prediction platforms as legitimate financial products, but state-level regulators in Nevada, Connecticut, and Arizona have been actively pushing back against that position.
The CFTC is currently engaged in litigation with nine states over predictions regulation, including Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New York, New Mexico, Minnesota, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin.
Gibraltar’s move into this space comes as part of a broader modernisation of its gambling framework, with the government having pushed through a new gambling bill this year to overhaul its regulatory infrastructure.
