Kalshi, the U.S.-based prediction market platform, is exploring a possible expansion into Brazil in 2026, according to co-founder Luana Lopes Lara.
Lopes Lara made the comments in an interview with Brazilian business outlet Valor, signaling the company’s growing international ambitions.
New York-headquartered Kalshi has emerged as one of the most disruptive players in the gambling and financial markets sector in 2025.
Its contracts linked to major political, economic, and social events have drawn significant attention and controversy.
Growing Influence and Industry Response
Kalshi’s rise has not gone unnoticed by established betting operators.
Critics argue that the platform’s expansion into sports-related contracts effectively bypasses state-level gambling regulations in the United States.
Despite these concerns, major U.S. betting groups DraftKings and FanDuel have followed a similar path.
Both companies launched their own prediction market products earlier this month through partnerships with CME Group.
This move has further blurred the lines between traditional sports betting and financial-style prediction markets.
Brazil Emerges as Strategic Target
Lopes Lara, who is Brazilian, identified her home country as a key potential market for future expansion.
According to her, Kalshi’s recent fundraising success has provided the foundation for international growth.
The company’s third funding round this year valued Kalshi at $11 billion.
“One of the first things we announced after the round was our plan to expand internationally,” Lopes Lara said.
“Brazil means a lot to me. I really want us to operate there.
“We’re still studying how to do it, but I hope we can announce something in early 2026.”
Regulatory Landscape Remains Unclear
Brazil launched its regulated online betting market in 2025, creating both opportunities and uncertainties for new entrants.
Lopes Lara noted that there is currently no direct equivalent to Kalshi operating in the Brazilian market.
Neither the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets nor the Brazilian Securities Commission has publicly clarified its position on prediction markets.
This regulatory ambiguity mirrors challenges Kalshi has faced in the United States.
Legal Battles in the United States
Kalshi has been involved in multiple legal disputes with state regulators throughout 2025.
In late November, a federal judge in Nevada overturned a preliminary injunction that had previously blocked the state from taking enforcement action against the platform.
The ruling reopened the door for Nevada to pursue claims that Kalshi is offering illegal gambling products.
The company is also engaged in legal action in states such as Connecticut, where regulators issued cease-and-desist letters.
Kalshi argues that it operates as a federally regulated exchange under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The platform maintains that it should not be subject to individual state gambling laws.
Challenges Ahead in Brazil
Brazilian regulators have recently moved to strengthen oversight and financial safeguards within the betting sector.
At the same time, the government is increasing the tax burden on licensed betting operators.
Prediction markets that fall outside this framework could face significant resistance.
As a result, Kalshi’s potential entry into Brazil is expected to face close scrutiny and possible opposition as discussions continue into 2026.
