IG Group has agreed to acquire prediction markets and daily fantasy sports operator Underdog in a deal valued at $1.1bn, equivalent to approximately £810m.
The acquisition represents a major strategic pivot for the London-listed fintech firm, broadening its focus well beyond traditional leveraged trading and investing into a far wider range of markets.
Underdog’s platform covers predictions spanning sports, politics, crypto, finance, and cultural events, giving IG Group a broad and diversified foothold in the fast-growing sector.
The deal structure includes up to $200m in earnout payments tied to 2026 financial performance, alongside a management incentive plan worth as much as $850m if Underdog hits ambitious EBITDA targets.
Those targets require Underdog to reach at least $400m in EBITDA during 2028 and $700m in 2029, setting a high bar for the combined business to clear.
Underdog generated $466m in net revenue during the 12 months to June 2026 and has built a registered customer base of more than 11 million users, with over five million deposited customers.
The platform reported $250.1m in net revenue during the first half of 2026 alone, while delivering positive EBITDA of $59.6m, pointing to improving profitability across the business.
Originally launched as a Daily Fantasy Sports operator, Underdog only launched prediction markets on its own exchange this month, entering a competitive space that already includes Kalshi, Polymarket, FanDuel, DraftKings, and Fanatics.
IG Group CEO Breon Corcoran outlined the company’s broader ambitions on a Thursday webinar, saying the group plans to scale Underdog’s platform “in time to come across financial markets, culture and politics.”
“If sport is where Underdog has won, it’s not where the opportunity ends,” Corcoran said, adding that “the infrastructure is category-agnostic.”
IG Group will facilitate the purchase largely by issuing more than 24 million new shares, which will comprise 60% of the upfront equity payment and represent approximately 6.8% of its enlarged issued share capital.
To help fund the transaction, IG Group has entered a $450m short-term leveraged loan agreement with Barclays Bank PLC and Goldman Sachs.
The acquisition is a direct result of the strategic review IG Group announced on 19 March 2026, and is intended as a decisive step toward building a global consumer engagement platform.
Corcoran acknowledged the current US political climate as a consideration, stating: “We’re clear-eyed about the risks, including the fast-moving regulatory environment.”
The companies expect the deal to close in either late 2026 or early 2027, subject to regulatory review and approval.
