Prediction markets are attracting serious financial firepower globally, with Polymarket reportedly pursuing a valuation of $21 billion and seeking regulatory acceptance across Europe.
The platform has been engaging with both the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority and the EU’s European Securities and Markets Authority to build a path toward broader legitimacy on the continent.
In the United States, the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has positioned itself firmly in support of the sector, backing operators including Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Robinhood.
Against that backdrop of growing international acceptance, Australia is shaping up to be a conspicuous holdout, with its securities regulator making its reservations unmistakably clear.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission has put retail users on notice that offshore prediction market activity carries no protections under domestic law.
ASIC chair Sarah Court went further, arguing that these products bear the hallmarks of gambling rather than investment, and that the regulator remains unconvinced of their merit for everyday consumers.
“ASIC is not currently convinced that prediction markets for retail clients are in the public interest,” said Court, adding that “they are highly speculative, typically involving an all-or-nothing outcome based on the occurrence of a particular event, a characteristic they share with binary options, which are prohibited for retail clients in Australia.”
The comparison to binary options is central to ASIC’s position, given that both product types require users to speculate on a binary outcome, though prediction markets operate through platforms while binary options are distributed over-the-counter by brokers.
Beyond the gambling parallel, ASIC flagged additional concerns about market integrity, pointing to risks around the misuse of confidential information, potential manipulation, and unresolved questions over how outcomes are determined.
Court confirmed at a parliamentary hearing on October 29 that not a single prediction market operator had yet filed an application with the regulator.
That absence of formal applications means ASIC’s statement stops short of introducing an outright ban or ruling on any specific licence request.
The regulator had already telegraphed its intentions through a priorities letter sent to industry boards and executives on September 30, which named prediction markets as a fresh area of focus for the 2026-27 period.
That letter committed ASIC to monitoring how event-based contracts are marketed and distributed, while promising to examine “the boundary between wagering and financial products” and act within its remit where necessary.
Adding a layer of complexity to the situation, wagering products that function similarly to prediction markets have already found their way onto the Australian market, suggesting the boundary the regulator is trying to police is already blurring in practice.
