Sportsbooks are projected to handle nearly 80% of all NFL wagering this season, even as prediction markets continue their rapid rise across the United States.
Research and advisory firm EKG estimates around $31.7bn will be wagered on the NFL through sportsbooks during the current season, compared to $8.4bn through prediction markets.
EKG described the prediction market figure as “a meaningful second channel” for NFL wagering but noted it remains “small on a relative scale” given the sector’s relatively recent emergence.
The combined figures represent a 79%-21% split in favour of traditional sportsbooks, despite what EKG characterised as “soaring valuations” surrounding prediction market operators.
EKG also forecast that NFL handle through sportsbooks will grow 8% year-on-year, outpacing the 5% underlying growth projected across the broader online sports betting market, excluding the impact of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
A more “aggressive” customer acquisition environment is helping fuel that sportsbook growth, with operators rolling out substantial welcome offers to attract new bettors ahead of the NFL season.
Headline bonuses include a $365 offer from bet365 and $350 promotions from both FanDuel and Fanatics, while DraftKings currently lags rivals with a $200 headline offer but has hinted it may increase spending in this area.
Prediction market platforms simply cannot compete at that level of generosity, with EKG pointing out that Kalshi’s best available bonus at the time of writing stood at just $25.
While prediction markets have proven effective at attracting sharp bettors and high-volume whales who are often limited or banned by sportsbooks, surveys suggest recreational bettors generally prefer the traditional sportsbook format when given the choice.
EKG expects parlays to account for more than 40% of regulated NFL handle and potentially around 75% of sportsbook NFL revenue due to their significantly higher margins, with prediction platforms now copying that same playbook.
Evidence that prediction markets are actively cannibalising sportsbook business remains limited, with DraftKings and FanDuel each reporting at most a low single-digit drag on handle growth from their own prediction platforms.
Rush Street Interactive has reported no discernible impact at all, while BetMGM, co-owned by MGM and Entain, has reported a more meaningful effect on its business.
Much of prediction market growth is being driven by access to states where standard sports betting remains unavailable, including California, Texas, Georgia, and Florida.
Football contract volume across selected exchanges reached 2.94 billion contracts between September 1 and September 14, nearly four times the volume recorded during the comparable period a year earlier.
During kickoff week, Polymarket recorded 755,000 US app downloads, narrowly ahead of Kalshi at 602,000, with Robinhood and Coinbase excluded from the comparison as their figures reflect broader activity beyond prediction markets.
Chris Grove, partner emeritus at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming, believes prediction markets are currently expanding the overall betting market rather than directly competing with sportsbooks, but warns that more direct competition is likely by the time of the Super Bowl.
