Meta is reportedly developing a predictions app called “Arena”, according to anonymous sources cited by the New York Times, marking a significant potential expansion for the social media giant.
The app would be downloaded and used separately from Facebook and Instagram, distancing it from Meta’s existing social media platforms while still operating under the company’s broader umbrella.
Unlike established predictions platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, Arena users would operate on a video-game style points system rather than placing real-money bets on events.
However, sources familiar with the matter told the New York Times that Meta has not ruled out eventually introducing real-money functionality to the platform.
The financial incentive for Meta entering this space is considerable, with Kalshi valued at approximately $22bn and Polymarket currently valued at $9bn while targeting a $15bn valuation.
Kalshi alone has claimed $2.9bn in traded volume around the World Cup so far, and reported $1bn in traded volume over the Super Bowl Sunday weekend alone.
Meta, valued at $1.43trn as of June 2026 and declaring $201bn in revenue in 2025, is clearly looking to capture a share of the rapidly growing predictions market.
This is not the first time Zuckerberg has moved aggressively toward an emerging technology, with many still recalling the company’s expensive and largely unsuccessful pivot toward the metaverse following its 2021 rebrand from Facebook to Meta.
The predictions market has also carved out an unexpected secondary reputation as a political forecasting tool, after Polymarket users overwhelmingly predicted Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential election victory while mainstream opinion polls largely favoured Kamala Harris.
The move comes at a particularly sensitive time for Meta, as Dutch gambling trade body VNLOK has begun preparing a formal legal complaint to the European Commission over unlicensed gambling advertising appearing on Meta’s platforms.
The Dutch gambling regulator, the Kansspelautoriteit, filed over 4,600 reports of illegal gambling advertising with Meta in April 2026 alone, adding significant regulatory pressure to the company’s ambitions in this space.
Complicating matters further, platforms like Polymarket have themselves faced accusations of working with football influencers on X without those influencers properly disclosing paid partnerships with the platform.
Public concern about the effects of social media on young people is also running high, with the UK announcing plans to ban under-16s from social media platforms, mirroring Australia’s parliamentary ban passed in 2024.
Whether Meta can successfully navigate these compounding regulatory and reputational challenges while launching a credible predictions product remains one of the more intriguing questions in the iGaming and tech worlds heading through 2026.
