Betfair’s Exchange has broken its all-time by-election betting record, with over £1.9m wagered on the Makerfield vote.
The previous record of £1.3m was set by the Gorton and Denton by-election, which took place earlier in 2026, and has now been surpassed comfortably.
Andy Burnham and Labour enter the contest as overwhelming 1.11 (1/9) favourites to claim the northwest constituency seat.
Reform UK have drifted out to 11.0 (10/1) in the market, despite the race having tightened somewhat earlier in the week.
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom commented on the one-sided nature of the wagering since the market first opened to the public.
Rosbottom said: “The betting has been one-way traffic since the market opened, with the overwhelming majority staked on Andy Burnham and Labour to win.”
He added: “We’ve also seen more money matched on Restore Britain than Reform to win the contest, £100,000 more to be precise.”
Despite punters favouring Restore Britain in terms of money staked, Reform UK still hold a 10% chance of winning compared to Restore Britain’s 2% on the Exchange.
The Greens, Liberal Democrats, and Conservatives are each given less than a 1% chance of victory according to current Betfair odds.
On Star Sports, Reform has reportedly “comfortably generated the most interest” when measured purely by volume of bets placed.
The contest carries significant political weight, with Burnham’s potential path to becoming Prime Minister seen as partly dependent on the result.
British punters appear largely unconvinced that the Greens can repeat the kind of success that came with Hannah Spencer’s victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election.
Spencer, who won that previous record-breaking contest, has previously made headlines for her pointed remarks directed at the gambling industry.
The Makerfield by-election has attracted wall-to-wall media coverage across the UK, though some attention has been diverted toward the 2026 World Cup.
England and Scotland both opened their World Cup campaigns with victories, beating Croatia 4-2 and Haiti 1-0 respectively, adding competition for the nation’s attention.
With polling set to close shortly, all eyes remain on whether Andy Burnham can secure the seat and keep his broader political ambitions firmly alive.
